XUANHAIMMOER CHANNEL - TOP AUTHOR WOLRD TRADINGVIEW

What about ETH? It will represent the Altcoin market.

Looking at the monthly (M) timeframe, the RSI is still below 50, not showing clear signs of an uptrend. However, Elliot Wave theory has provided sufficient momentum, and the RSI is accumulating above 45 sessions.

The MACD histogram has a positive value, but essentially, the MACD is still in negative territory, so we are still waiting for it to enter the positive range.

Overall, ETHBTC seems to have completed its downtrend in 2025 and is currently accumulating and poised for a breakout. If this price increases, it could pull BTC.D down.

What about the Altcoin market?

Clearly, we are moving within a large triangle pattern. What does this indicate? The total market capitalization of Altcoins and BTC is becoming less volatile and shrinking, potentially stabilizing at the intersection of these two diagonals in the future, around 50-55%.

Every four years, BTC.D usually experiences a sharp decline in the final year of the cycle, but this didn't happen in 2025. However, I think we will have a 6-8 year cycle in the near future where BTC.D fails to surpass 65-70%.

At that point, we will see a flow of money into Altcoins.

(This is

Bitcoin: MVRV Z-Score

From Bitcoin Magazine Pro

And the MVRV index is also like that; it hasn't reached negative values ​​like in previous cycles, so I think BTC still has another dip to complete its 4-year cycle, which may end at the end of this year.

Bitcoin: Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL)

From Bitcoin Magazine Pro

And here we have a clear signal that NUPL hasn't yet reached negative levels (which usually happens during BTC's downturns).

Therefore, I think BTC hasn't finished its downturn yet.

Bitcoin Price and Global M2 Supply & Growth

From Coinglass

First, we still need to look at global money flow with the M2 index.

In most previous downturns, the M2 index tended to decrease, and the global M2 Yoy Growth was always negative when BTC was at the bottom of the cycle.

Looking at this time, that's not happening. I believe this downturn won't last too long or be too extreme, as money flow remains very positive.