🗓Week Ahead – Trump-Powell saga, ECB and earnings to keep traders busy
• 💵Dollar holds strong amid safe haven flows and inflation risks
• 🗣Powell’s speech and US preliminary PMIs to draw attention
• 🇪🇺ECB expected to stay on hold – focus shifts to guidance
• 🇬🇧UK PMIs awaited, but August BoE cut still widely expected
• 📊Alphabet and Tesla earnings in spotlight
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🇺🇸Investors trim Fed rate cut bets
The US dollar extended its dominance this week, buoyed by risk-off flows and rising inflation concerns due to tariffs.
📈 June CPI showed stronger-than-expected inflation, driven by core goods prices – likely tariff-related.
This erased most bets on a July Fed cut. Even September odds slipped to 60%.
Despite a softer PPI report, rate cut expectations didn’t bounce back, showing markets are firmly in wait-and-see mode.
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🗣Will Powell cave to Trump’s pressure?
Fed Chair Jerome Powell will speak Tuesday at a Federal Reserve-hosted event.
After Trump’s intensified attacks – and even rumors of replacing Powell – markets are eager to hear his stance.
If Powell defends the Fed’s independence and signals patience, the dollar may strengthen further.
However, any sign of dovish tilt could revive some rate cut speculation.
📉Thursday’s S&P Global PMIs will offer fresh insight into how the US economy is coping with trade tensions – especially the price and employment components.
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🇪🇺Will Lagarde sound more cautious this time?
The ECB meets Thursday, with no policy change expected.
President Lagarde previously said rates are in a “good position,” and recent data – stronger GDP, retail sales, and inflation at 2% – support a cautious pause.
However, with Trump threatening 30% tariffs on EU goods, market focus shifts to Lagarde’s tone.
If she appears more worried about trade, euro could come under pressure.
Preliminary Eurozone PMIs, released before the decision, could also influence sentiment.
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🇬🇧UK PMIs in focus as BoE cut looms
UK CPI surprised to the upside, but markets remain confident of an August rate cut due to a weakening labor market and dovish BoE tone.
🧾 PMIs, due the same day as Eurozone’s, may have more influence now.
If July shows solid improvement, traders might delay expectations of further cuts into 2025.
Strong retail sales on Friday could further support sterling.
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🌐Other key events
• 🇦🇺RBA meeting minutes – Tuesday
• 🇯🇵Tokyo CPI (Japan) – Friday
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📈Wall Street eyes Alphabet & Tesla earnings
Both report on Wednesday after the close:
• Alphabet (GOOGL): Revenue expected to rise to $93.9B (from $90.2B), but YoY growth may slow.
EPS is forecast at $2.18 vs $2.27 in Q1. With pressure from AI competition, investors want to hear plans for Gemini without hurting Google Search.
• Tesla (TSLA): Q1 revenue dropped 9% and outlook was withdrawn.
⚠️Eyes on 2025 guidance, tariffs, political remarks, and updates on the robotaxi rollout – especially after safety concerns in Austin.
No reviews yet.