It's been a while since I've reviewed US light crude. The last update was back in September 2024. At that time I was predicting a drop of 49 from 69 and an exponential rise at the beginning of this year.
#USOIL, 1D, The first part of the forecast has almost come true, oil fell to $55, rebounded and is now at $61.5 a barrel. But the targets are not fulfilled yet, which hints at the possibility of another bottom in the near future. Then the growth will come around the end of the current year.
It's a matter of time before the growth will be for sure. The second picture shows the cost of oil production in the USA, and the third one shows the cost of developing new wells. Oil producers, the same ones who supported Trump, are operating on the edge of profitability.
Operating costs for existing wells (the minimum price at which they are not shut in) average $36 per barrel WTI.
The cost of drilling new wells averages $62 per barrel WTI.
The current price is $61.5 per barrel WTI.
#USOIL, 1D, The first part of the forecast has almost come true, oil fell to $55, rebounded and is now at $61.5 a barrel. But the targets are not fulfilled yet, which hints at the possibility of another bottom in the near future. Then the growth will come around the end of the current year.
It's a matter of time before the growth will be for sure. The second picture shows the cost of oil production in the USA, and the third one shows the cost of developing new wells. Oil producers, the same ones who supported Trump, are operating on the edge of profitability.
Operating costs for existing wells (the minimum price at which they are not shut in) average $36 per barrel WTI.
The cost of drilling new wells averages $62 per barrel WTI.
The current price is $61.5 per barrel WTI.
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