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-Nick

Good morning! ☕️

The oil trade sent yesterday is not playing around...

Up +3.15% since posting

- Nick

EdgeFinder’s Forex Scanner

US economic data continues to beat expectations, giving the Dollar some support. Meanwhile, political uncertainty looms in Japan ahead of this weekend’s upper house elections. The outcome could impact future fiscal and trade policy — especially with tariff talks still ongoing.

EdgeFinder’s Scanner Highlights:
- COT data shows heavy Yen selling and Dollar buying
- Political uncertainty in Japan
- Retail sentiment remains net short, a contrarian signal
- Seasonality and trend indicators are supportive for the Dollar
- USD/JPY has shown relative strength versus other majors this week

With technicals at resistance and fundamentals heating up, this level could prove pivotal. A breakout or rejection may guide the next leg — one to watch closely

USD/JPY – Sitting at Resistance

USD/JPY is trading up near the $148.000 mark — a key level that’s acted as resistance before. Price is now hanging in the upper portion of that range. A clean break and retest, either above or below, could give some insight into where this pair heads next.

Fundamentally, the Yen has been under pressure heading into Sunday’s upper house election in Japan. Polls suggest the ruling party may lose its majority, which adds a layer of political uncertainty — and could muddy the waters in Japan’s ongoing tariff talks with the US

Meanwhile, the Dollar has held firm this week, riding the wave of strong economic data. Tariff negotiations remain a weight on the Yen, especially with Japan still stuck in a deadlock with Washington over autos and agriculture — two politically sensitive areas.

DXY – Support or Slip?

The US Dollar Index is holding in the $98 range — a level that was previously resistance and may now act as support. DXY broke above this zone after a string of healthy data, and whether it holds here could determine near-term direction. A bounce may signal more upside, while a break lower could confirm continuation of the broader downtrend.

Thursday’s data gave the Dollar some fuel: retail sales beat expectations, and jobless claims dropped to a three-month low. That followed a CPI print earlier in the week — the strongest in five months — reinforcing the idea that the Fed may need to wait longer before cutting.
Rate cut bets have pulled back slightly. Markets are now pricing in about 45bps of easing for the rest of the year — down from 50bps earlier this week.

Still, uncertainties linger. Fiscal concerns from Trump’s tax plan and spending, plus ongoing pressure on the Fed from the White House, keep the outlook murky for Dollar bulls and bears alike.

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