We are apparently at the part where the ones who were wrong in 2021 because “the cycle”, are now certain of no new ATHs for years because “the cycle”.
I used to be one. I remember when my belief in a predictable 4-year heartbeat of blow-off tops that would make everyone rich, made me allergic to other interpretations.
Perhaps we are in the same macro impulse wave that began in 2019, and are seeing a similar early structure to the current sub-impulse as we did with the last (late 2020).
Or perhaps the 4 year cycle (closer to 3.5 years) if there is one, is driven by liquidity, not the halving. Perhaps we are in the early stages of a parabolic leg, similar to late 2015/2016, and those who can’t look before 2019, won’t get “one more big dip”.
If the last 2 years have taught me anything, it’s that history much more rhymes than repeats, but that rhyming can happen cross asset. #Bitcoin in my opinion, at this stage, is a speculative asset, subject to the same forces that drive any other. Be careful of blind devotion to a special “cycle” with its own set of rules. Especially ones that are supposedly easy to follow. The market never makes it easy.
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