EUR/USD ..
Technical:
Price has broken down from a multi-week range near 1.18 and is now trading below key moving averages on the 4H chart. The sharp bearish impulse suggests momentum has shifted in favor of sellers. As long as price remains below the former range support around the mid-1.16 area, short-term bias stays bearish. A recovery above the broken structure would weaken downside pressure, but currently the structure favors further downside continuation.
Fundamental:
The US dollar remains supported by relatively higher US yields and resilient economic data, which keeps expectations of restrictive policy from the Federal Reserve firm.
On the euro side, softer growth momentum and cautious policy guidance from the European Central Bank limit upside strength.
So far the macro backdrop currently favors USD strength over EUR, aligning with the recent technical breakdown.
Technical:
Price has broken down from a multi-week range near 1.18 and is now trading below key moving averages on the 4H chart. The sharp bearish impulse suggests momentum has shifted in favor of sellers. As long as price remains below the former range support around the mid-1.16 area, short-term bias stays bearish. A recovery above the broken structure would weaken downside pressure, but currently the structure favors further downside continuation.
Fundamental:
The US dollar remains supported by relatively higher US yields and resilient economic data, which keeps expectations of restrictive policy from the Federal Reserve firm.
On the euro side, softer growth momentum and cautious policy guidance from the European Central Bank limit upside strength.
So far the macro backdrop currently favors USD strength over EUR, aligning with the recent technical breakdown.
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